The Minnesota Timberwolves are one loss away from being eliminated from the Western Conference Finals.
With a loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight, the Minnesota Timberwolves will have lost the Western Conference Finals in back-to-back years. But we won’t get ahead of ourselves.
The Timberwolves fell to the Thunder, 128-126, in Game 4 at their home arena. They stuck around against Oklahoma City, despite Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle scoring only 16 and five points, respectively. Those two combined for 21 points, when the expectation is that both players should score 20+ points each.
The close loss highlights the depth of the Timberwolves. Minnesota had three 20+ point scorers in the loss, including Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Donte DiVincenzo. If Edwards and/or Randle figure it out, the Timberwolves are still super dangerous.
Can Minnesota hold on in Game 5 and force a Game 6 at home?
I’ve added my best NBA bet for tonight’s Western Conference Finals Game 5 below.
Wednesday’s Best NBA Playoffs Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best defense in the NBA’s postseason. They’ve limited opponents to 107.7 points per 100 possessions and have held teams to a 50.4% effective field goal rate. Additionally, the Thunder have committed a 17.8% turnover rate per game in the playoffs. That’s also the best number in the NBA.
Ultimately, the turnovers were a big problem in Game 4. Minnesota allowed 23 turnovers to Oklahoma City’s 14.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have been super strong on the offensive glass. Minnesota has gained 34.6% of offensive rebounds in the playoffs, while the Thunder have allowed 32.4% of offensive rebounds on defense. The Thunder have also given up a 23.1% free-throw rate, which is one of the worst rates in the playoffs. Ultimately, the Timberwolves need to capitalize on the offensive glass and continue drawing fouls.
In Game 4, the Timberwolves added more foul shots and scored more points off turnovers, despite giving up nine more turnovers. However, the Thunder still grabbed 19 offensive rebounds on their end of the floor. If Minnesota wants to win tonight’s game, that can’t happen.
The Thunder have a much worse offensive rebounding rate in the playoffs. Oklahoma City has added just 28.7% of offensive rebounds in the playoffs, but had success in Game 4. Ultimately, Minnesota should be better on the glass in Game 5. As long as the Timberwolves can secure some long rebounds and force a good number of turnovers, I like Minnesota to at least stay competitive and cover the 8.5-point spread. It’s all hands on deck. Minnesota will fight until the end.
It’s also hard to imagine Edwards having a worse performance than Game 4. He scored 30+ points in his previous two games before Game 4’s dud.
Pick: Timberwolves +8.5 (-115)
