Power Rankings, Week 25: 1 thing to watch for every team with 1 week left

Record: 64-14

OffRtg: 118.8 (3) DefRtg: 106.5 (1) NetRtg: +12.3 (1) Pace: 100.8 (5)

The Thunder have seemingly taken their foot off the gas, having suffered just their fourth and fifth double-digit losses of the season over the weekend. They still have the best per-game point differential in NBA history and the best record (17-9) in games played between the top eight teams in the West, but they still need a few more wins to secure a better record than the Cavs and home-court advantage in a potential Finals matchup.

One takeaway

The Thunder have had the league’s best defense by a wide margin, but no team can defend everything in today’s NBA. They rank 20th in defensive rebounding percentage (70.5%) and grabbed just 62.8% of available defensive boards over the two weekend losses. They have the league’s highest opponent 3-point rate and saw the Lakers make a season-high 22 3s on Sunday. They will menace opponents with their aggressiveness but can give up points on the weak side or on the glass if all five defenders aren’t at full tilt. And it’s going to be fascinating to see if teams can take advantage in the playoffs like Dallas did last year..

What to watch for this week

The Thunder’s last three games are against teams with losing records, so their second of two straight against the Lakers is their last real test of the regular season. Rebounding and 3-point defense will continue to be under the microscope, but so will an offense that’s scored just 106.4 points per 100 possessions (their worst mark against any West opponent) over the first two meetings.

Week 25: vs. LAL, @ PHX, @ UTA, @ NOP

Record: 62-16

OffRtg: 121.4 (1) DefRtg: 112.0 (9) NetRtg: +9.4 (3) Pace: 100.3 (11)

The Cavs missed on their first chance to clinch the top seed in the East, losing to the Kings (at home) on Sunday. So they still have something to play for this week, though they have clinched the second-best regular-season record in franchise history and still have very little chance of falling into the more dangerous 2-7-3-6 side of the bracket.

One takeaway

The Kings shot well both inside and out on Sunday, and the Cavs have now allowed almost 130 points per 100 possessions over their last five losses. The biggest difference between when this team wins and when it loses continues to be how well the opponent shoots from 3-point range. The Cavs are a league-best 40-3 when their opponent has shot worse than the league average (36.0%) from beyond the arc and 22-13 when their opponent has shot 36% or better. That latter mark is still the second-best (only the Thunder have been better), though it’s just 1-6 since mid-March.

What to watch for this week

The Cavs will play their final four games against three teams — the Bulls, Pacers and Knicks — that rank in the top 11 in 3-point percentage. Indiana is a potential second-round opponent and is responsible for one of those three losses when the opponent shot worse than 36%, with their Jan. 12 meeting having been the Cavs’ worst offensive game of the season.

Week 25: vs. CHI, @ IND, @ NYK, vs. IND

Record: 58-20

OffRtg: 120.2 (2) DefRtg: 110.4 (5) NetRtg: +9.5 (2) Pace: 96.8 (28)

The Celtics are a league-best 16-2 since March 1, scoring a league-best 124.3 points per 100 possessions over that stretch. And that’s with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porziņģis and Al Horford all having missed at least five of those 18 games.

One takeaway

The Celtics’ preferred starting lineup has played in just 23 games together, and it’s still been outscored (by five points) in its 343 total minutes. But none of those guys seems to have a serious injury and Porziņģis played in eight of 10 before missing their win over the Wizards on Sunday. This team seems to have found the gas pedal over the last five or six weeks and will likely finish in the top five on both ends of the floor for the third straight season, something that has never been done in the 48 years since the league started counting turnovers.

What to watch for this week

Cleveland would need to go 0-4 (and Boston would need to go 4-0) for the Celtics to get the No. 1 seed in the East. So their top eight players should continue to get days off, though it might be nice to complete a season sweep of the Knicks and maintain a mental edge against their most likely second-round opponent. Their 132 points on just 91 possessions on opening night is still the Celtics’ most efficient offensive performance of the season and the most efficient game any team has had against New York.

Week 25: @ NYK, @ ORL, vs. CHA, vs. CHA

Record: 52-27

OffRtg: 115.0 (11) DefRtg: 109.4 (4) NetRtg: +5.6 (4) Pace: 99.0 (19)

The Rockets have risen above the crowd of teams fighting for the 3-8 spots in the West by winning 15 of their last 17 games. It was a soft stretch of schedule at first, but they picked up impressive victories over the Thunder and Warriors over the weekend and are just one win (or a Laker loss) from clinching the 2 seed.

One takeaway

Two seasons ago, the Rockets were 22-60, getting outscored by 8.1 points per 100 possessions. They saw the league’s biggest jump (+9.0 per 100) last season and have seen its sixth biggest jump (+4.7) this year, a pretty remarkable leap given that the roster changes were relatively subtle. The bigger improvement in both years has come on the defensive end of the floor, where the Rockets have gone from 29th to 10th to fourth in those two seasons. But it shouldn’t go unnoticed that they have a shot at finishing in the top 10 offensively, despite a lack of shooting. They’re one of three teams — the Hornets and Magic are the others — with fewer than two players (Dillon Brooks is their only one) who’ve shot the league average (36.0%) or better on at least 200 3-point attempts.

What to watch for this week

Their Week 25 schedule does not give the Rockets a guaranteed win to clinch the No. 2 seed. Instead, it gives them three potential playoff previews, with their game against the similarly hot Clippers serving as the most intriguing matchup. They’re 3-0 against the Clippers but haven’t faced Kawhi Leonard in more than a year. And with that game being the second of a back-to-back for L.A., it’s possible they won’t see him on Wednesday either.

Week 25: @ LAC, @ LAL, vs. DEN

Record: 46-32

OffRtg: 114.0 (15) DefRtg: 111.2 (7) NetRtg: +2.8 (10) Pace: 99.5 (16)

The Warriors went 3-1 as they played their first four April games within the top eight in the West, putting them in the middle of the scrum of five Western Conference teams with exactly 32 losses as we enter the final week. They could realistically finish anywhere from fourth to eighth in the West and might be the team that least needs home-court advantage. They’re one of six teams that have been better, statistically, on the road (plus-3.1 per 100 possessions) than they’ve been at home (plus-2.6). (The other five are all in the East.)

One takeaway

The Warriors are 20-3 with both Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry in the lineup, having scored an efficient 119.9 points per 100 possessions over those 23 games. That includes an 8-2 record against teams that are currently over .500 and a 4-2 mark within the top eight in the West. But after scoring 126.7 per 100 over the wins against the Grizzlies, Lakers and Nuggets last week, the Warriors were shut down (96 on 98) by the Rockets on Sunday, with Curry shooting 1-for-10 and registering a usage rate under 20% for just the seventh time this season. The Warriors are 3-4 (1-3 against good teams) in those games because bad things can happen when the best shooter doesn’t shoot.

What to watch for this week

Among the five West teams with 32 losses, the Warriors have the most Week 25 games (3) against teams with losing records. They haven’t been perfect against those sub-.500 teams (losing in Atlanta and Miami recently) and they’re 1-2 against the Suns, who they’ll visit on Tuesday. They’re 0-3 against the Clippers, having scored an anemic 97 points per 100 possessions over the three games, though all three came well before Jimmy Butler made his way to Golden State.

Week 25: @ PHX, vs. SAS, @ POR, vs. LAC

Record: 48-30

OffRtg: 115.0 (12) DefRtg: 113.7 (15) NetRtg: +1.3 (14) Pace: 98.4 (21)

The Lakers have gone 3-1 in games within the top eight in the West over the last nine days, scoring a remarkably efficient 123.4 points per 100 possessions over the four games, even though all four came against teams that rank in the top 11 defensively. They sit in third place in the West but still have some work to do to secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

One takeaway

The Lakers are 13-7 with both Luka Dončić and LeBron James, a record that includes a 9-2 mark against teams that are currently over .500. They’ve been shooting a lot more 3s since the Dončić addition, taking 49% of their shots from beyond the arc in the 25 games that he’s played in. They’ve outscored their opponents by 9.3 points per game from beyond the arc over those 11 games against good teams with both Dončić and James, with their high marks for 3-point percentage (55%) and 3-point makes both (22) coming in their win in Oklahoma City on Sunday.

What to watch for this week

More games against good teams await, and the Thunder (who the Lakers will play again on Tuesday) still need more wins to clinch home-court advantage through the NBA Finals. The Lakers’ defense has remained solid, so if the offense can stay hot against Oklahoma City and Houston, this will be a dangerous team entering the postseason.

Week 25: @ OKC, @ DAL, vs. HOU, @ POR

Record: 46-32

OffRtg: 115.3 (9) DefRtg: 110.8 (6) NetRtg: +4.6 (6) Pace: 98.0 (24)

The Wolves have won five straight games and are 14-3 (only the Celtics and Thunder have been better) since March 1. That has them in a four-way tie for the No. 5-8 spots in the West.

One takeaway

The Wolves have seen the league’s eighth biggest drop in winning percentage from last season, but they rank in the top 10 on both ends of the floor for what would be just the second time in franchise history. Their defense has remained solid, and (despite the departure of Karl-Anthony Towns) they’re one of 10 teams that have seen a jump in points scored per 100 possessions from 2023-24. Anthony Edwards has had the most efficient season of his career, but the jump has been more about his minutes off the floor.

What to watch for this week

The only team in the Western Conference that the Wolves haven’t beaten is the Grizzlies, with both losses coming (in January) by two points and the Wolves having scored just 13 points on 21 clutch possessions over the two. A guaranteed playoff spot could be on the line when the two teams meet in Memphis on Thursday, possibly the biggest remaining game league-wide.

Week 25: @ MIL, @ MEM, vs. BKN, vs. UTA

Record: 46-32

OffRtg: 113.8 (17) DefRtg: 109.0 (2) NetRtg: +4.8 (5) Pace: 98.4 (20)

Kawhi Leonard played in both ends of a back-to-back for the first time this season, and the Clippers have won 14 of their last 17, ranking in the top two on both ends of the floor over that stretch. They’re at the top of the four-way tie for the No. 5-8 spots in the West, but have a relatively tough Week 25 coming.

One takeaway

It was noted in this space in October that the Clippers had the personnel and potential to be a great defensive team after two seasons in the middle of the pack on that end of the floor. Sometimes we get things right, and the Clips have allowed 4.7 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average, making this their best defensive season (by a wide margin) in the 29 years for which we have play-by-play data. They’ve seen the league’s fourth biggest jump in opponent turnover rate and its biggest jump in defensive rebounding percentage, and they’ve had the two-time former Defensive Player of the Year for just 34 of their 78 games.

What to watch for this week

Leonard has played in 11 of the last 12, and the Clippers’ improving offense has been at its best (119.3 points scored per 100 possessions) with him on the floor. Their two biggest games this week are against teams — the Rockets and Warriors — that rank in the top seven defensively, and they’ve scored just 104.5 points per 100 possessions in six games against those teams thus far. But all six took place before Leonard made his season debut in January.

Week 25: vs. SAS, vs. HOU, @ SAC, @ GSW

Record: 47-32

OffRtg: 118.7 (4) DefRtg: 115.1 (20) NetRtg: +3.6 (9) Pace: 100.8 (6)

The good news is that the last time the Nuggets lost four straight games (March of 2023), they won a championship a few months later. But they had the No. 1 seed pretty much sewn up when they began that losing streak, and this one has them in danger of falling into the Play-In tournament.

One takeaway

Jamal Murray has missed the last five games and Nikola Jokić, after registering a 60-point triple-double in the Nuggets’ double-OT loss to the Wolves on Tuesday, missed their loss to San Antonio the following night. So it’s been a relatively rough stretch offensively, with the Nuggets scoring just 92.5 points per 100 possessions in Jokić’s 73 minutes off the floor during the losing streak. But it’s the other end of the floor where the Nuggets never figure things out this season, seeing the league’s fourth biggest jump in points allowed per 100 possessions from last season. That jump has been much bigger in Jokić’s minutes on the floor (+4.7 per 100) than it’s been in his minutes off (+0.3).

What to watch for this week

The Nuggets aren’t done yet. They still have the best player in the world, they’re currently in fourth place — ahead of the other four teams with 32 losses because they’ve banked an extra win. They’ll have a rest advantage on Friday when they play a huge game against the Grizzlies that’ll determine the head-to-head tie-breaker. Jokić missed both of the first two meetings, a two-game series in Memphis that took place before Thanksgiving.

Week 25: @ SAC, vs. MEM, @ HOU

Record: 50-28

OffRtg: 117.5 (5) DefRtg: 113.2 (13) NetRtg: +4.3 (8) Pace: 97.8 (26)

The Knicks won six of their last eight games without Jalen Brunson, but were surely happy to see him return from a 15-game absence on Sunday. Brunson shot just 3-for-9 in a victory over the Suns, but his return did not disturb the rhythm of OG Anunoby (13-for-17), who has averaged 27.6 points on a true shooting percentage of 69.9% over the last 10 games.

One takeaway

In his last game before his injury (Mar. 6 at the Lakers), Brunson had possession of the ball for 15.2 minutes per 100 possessions, his highest rate of the season, according to Second Spectrum tracking. On Sunday, he had it for just 10.8 minutes per 100 possessions, his 10th lowest rate of the season. So the Knicks may try to keep their offense less reliant on their point guard than it was before he went down. Their defense has generally had greater cause for concern, but other guys must make plays on offense in the playoffs.

What to watch for this week

The Knicks need one more victory (or a Pacers loss) to clinch the 3 seed. We’ll see if they get anything close to the full-strength Celtics on Tuesday, but if Karl-Anthony Towns’ pick-and-roll defense isn’t under scrutiny then, it will be two nights later in Detroit, where we could get a first-round preview. Cade Cunningham totaled 65 points as the Pistons won the last two meetings at Madison Square Garden.

Week 25: vs. BOS, @ DET, vs. CLE, @ BKN

Record: 47-31

OffRtg: 115.8 (7) DefRtg: 113.6 (14) NetRtg: +2.2 (12) Pace: 100.7 (8)

It’s been 11 years since the Pacers last had home-court advantage in a playoff series because the 2020 playoffs (when they were the No. 4 seed) were held in a bubble. They’re looking good for the No. 4 seed again, having won four straight games and leading the fifth-place Bucks by three in the loss column.

One takeaway

The Pacers have ranked in the top 10 on both ends of the floor in winning 12 of their last 15 games. It hasn’t been the toughest slate regarding opposing offenses, but the defensive improvement is noteworthy and has the Pacers as a better-than-average defensive team for what would be the first time in the last five years. They’ve seen the league’s fifth biggest drop in points allowed per 100 possessions from last season, climbing out of the bottom 10 in both opponent free throw rate (from 30th to second) and defensive rebounding percentage (from 26th to 17th).

What to watch for this week

The Pacers can clinch the No. 4 seed (with some help from the Wolves in Milwaukee) as early as Tuesday, which would seemingly help Pascal Siakam with an elbow issue that he’s been dealing with. He’s shot just 11-for-45 (24%) from outside the paint over his last nine games and missed the Pacers’ win in Denver over the weekend.

Week 25: vs. WAS, vs. CLE, vs. ORL, @ CLE

Record: 46-32

OffRtg: 117.1 (6) DefRtg: 112.6 (11) NetRtg: +4.5 (7) Pace: 103.8 (1)

After a 1-7 stretch, the Grizzlies got Tuomas Iisalo his first two victories as a coach, holding the Heat and Pistons to just 103.9 points per 100 possessions over the first two games of a three-game trip that concludes in Charlotte on Tuesday. Ja Morant provided the heroics in Miami, and the Grizzlies improved to 17-14 without him two nights later. They’re still in the fight for a top-six spot in the West.

One takeaway

Despite the Grizzlies’ slide over the last few weeks, this has still been the second-best season in franchise history regarding point differential, both per game and per 100 possessions. It’s been their best offensive season ever, with the Grizzlies having scored 3.4 more points per 100 possessions than the league average. They’ve seen the league’s ninth biggest jump in ball movement and its third biggest jump in player movement, and the changes have paid off.

What to watch for this week

The offense has scored just 112.1 points per 100 possessions (worst among teams still playing for something) over the Grizzlies’ last nine games, and it would be nice to get it going again in a crucial final week of the season. Entering Week 25, there are five West teams with 32 losses. The Grizzlies are one of the five, and they’ll play two others this week in a huge opportunity to move up multiple spots in the standings.

They’re 2-0 against the Wolves and 1-1 against the Nuggets (who they haven’t played since mid-November), having combined with their opponents to score just 108.1 points per 100 possessions over those four games.

Week 25: @ CHA, vs. MIN, @ DEN, vs. DAL

Record: 43-35

OffRtg: 114.2 (14) DefRtg: 111.8 (8) NetRtg: +2.3 (11) Pace: 100.4 (10)

The Pistons have fallen back to sixth place in the East, but more importantly, they got Cade Cunningham back from a six-game absence on Saturday. They still control their own destiny in regard to moving back into the 4-5 matchup, set to face the fifth-place Bucks in their final two games of the season.

One takeaway

The Pistons’ improvement from 14-68 (.171) to 43-35 (.551) would be the biggest season-to-season jump in the last 17 years, since the Celtics added Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett in the summer of 2007. Detroit added Malik Beasley and Tobias Harris, but coach J.B. Bickerstaff gets a ton of credit for the turnaround. The Pistons have been the league’s third most improved team on offense and its most improved team on defense, and there’s still room to grow. No matter what happens in the next few weeks, it’s been a terrific year for a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2008.

What to watch for this week

The Pistons have the worst record (5-12) in games played between the top six teams in the East. Two of those five wins have come at Madison Square Garden, and they’ll complete the season series with the Knicks in Detroit on Thursday. Then it’s two potentially huge games against Milwaukee, with the Pistons’ defense under the spotlight. The Bucks have scored 121.4 points per 100 possessions, the third-highest mark for any Detroit opponent, as they’ve won the first two meetings.

Week 25: vs. SAC, vs. NYK, vs. MIL, @ MIL

Record: 44-34

OffRtg: 114.6 (13) DefRtg: 112.7 (12) NetRtg: +1.9 (13) Pace: 99.9 (14)

The Bucks have won four straight games, climbing back into fifth place in the East and improving to 6-4 during  Damian Lillard’s absence. Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 36 points, 12.3 rebounds and 13.7 assists over the first three games of the streak, and the Bucks got a win in New Orleans without him on Sunday, improving to 4-3 without Lillard or Antetokounmpo in uniform.

One takeaway

This will likely be the first time in the last eight seasons that the Bucks don’t rank in the top 10 on either end of the floor. They rank in the top five in three of the four factors on offense, but their high free throw rate (third) is partially undone by subpar shooting at the line (28th). They also rank last in offensive rebounding percentage by a large margin, so they give themselves minimal second chances.

What to watch for this week

The Bucks hold the head-to-head tie-breaker, but are unlikely to catch the Pacers for fourth place. So their seed (5 or 6) will surely come down to their home-and-home series with the Pistons over the weekend. With the Bucks 3-1 against Indiana and 0-3 against the third-place Knicks (having allowed 128.3 points per 100 possessions over those three games), they should be all-in on staying where they are.

Week 25: vs. MIN, vs. NOP, @ DET, vs. DET

Record: 38-40

OffRtg: 108.7 (27) DefRtg: 109.2 (3) NetRtg: -0.5 (17) Pace: 96.4 (30)

The Magic have won six of their last eight games to hold onto seventh place in the East and give themselves a chance at finishing at or above .500. They scored less than 95 points per 100 possessions in both of the losses, but it’s still been a relatively good stretch of offense (115.5 per 100). Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have accounted for almost half the scoring, but their teammates have also shot 39.5% from 3-point range over the eight games.

One takeaway

The Magic will still finish in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency for the 12th straight season, and that mark goes well beyond the injuries they’ve suffered. But they have an elite defense for the second straight year, having allowed 4.5 fewer possessions than the league average, their best differential in the last 14 seasons. The strength of that defense is forcing turnovers (second in opponent turnover rate) and rebounding (fourth in defensive rebounding percentage), so the Magic generally get more shots than their opponent. Making them is the issue.

What to watch for this week

Two games against the Hawks could determine who gets home-court in the East’s No. 7-8 Play-In game. The season series is even, with the road team having won both games by six points. The Magic would have the tie-breaker (better record within the Southeast Division) if they split this week, but they have the much tougher Week 25 games otherwise, with Atlanta playing at Brooklyn and Philadelphia.

Week 25: vs. ATL, vs. BOS, @ IND, @ ATL

Record: 37-41

OffRtg: 113.4 (19) DefRtg: 115.1 (19) NetRtg: -1.7 (19) Pace: 103.5 (3)

The Hawks are heading to the Play-In tournament for the fourth straight season, but could still finish anywhere from seventh to 10th in the East. The beauty of the Play-In is that every spot has an advantage over the one below.

One takeaway

The Hawks have outscored their opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions in 332 total minutes with Mouhamed Gueye and Onyeka Okongwu on the floor together, but Georges Niang has continued to play more minutes than Gueye and replaced him in the starting lineup on Sunday. It was against the Jazz, so it may not mean anything, but the Hawks scored 147 points on 102 possessions, their most efficient offensive performance of the season. They’ve seen the league’s biggest jump in efficiency since the All-Star break and have now scored 119.8 points per 100 possessions in 409 minutes with Niang and Trae Young on the floor together, though the offense has been nearly as efficient on the other end of the floor.

What to watch for this week

The Hawks’ weekend back-to-back was the start of a stretch of five games in seven days, but their two rest-disadvantage games in that stretch are against the Jazz (they beat them on Sunday) and the Sixers (whom they will visit on Friday night). They’ll have a day off before each of their critical meetings with the seventh-place Magic, who they trail by a game.

Week 25: @ ORL, @ BKN, @ PHI, vs. ORL

Record: 38-40

OffRtg: 115.6 (8) DefRtg: 115.1 (21) NetRtg: +0.5 (15) Pace: 99.2 (18)

The Kings’ six-game trip (which concludes in Detroit on Monday) includes a loss in Washington and a win in Cleveland. The latter got them back to ninth place in the West, and they need one more victory to secure a West Play-In spot.

One takeaway

Seven teams have gotten less than 7.5% of their minutes from rookies or second-year players. The other six are all at least 10 games over .500 (Milwaukee is the worst of the six), while the Kings (28th at 4.1% of their minutes having come from first or second-year guys) are two games under. They’re 10-10 with Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis in the lineup, having been outscored by 6.3 points per 100 possessions (with bad defensive numbers) in 451 total minutes with all three on the floor. They don’t have much of a foundation for the future, and they’re not very good right now.

What to watch for this week

Because the Suns have two tough opponents early in the week, the Kings may not need to win any of their four remaining games to reach the Play-In. But it would be good if they could hold off the Mavs (against whom they have the tie-breaker) for home-court advantage in the No. 9-10 game. Doing so may require them to stay warm offensively. Since the All-Star break, they’ve scored 127.5 points per 100 possessions in their 10 wins but just 108.1 in their 13 losses.

If the Kings make the Play-In, they’ll go in with the players — Jonas Valančiūnas (123 points over eight games) and DeMar DeRozan (113 over five) — who rank first and third in all-time Play-In scoring.

Week 25: @ DET, vs. DEN, vs. LAC, vs. PHX

Record: 36-42

OffRtg: 113.2 (20) DefRtg: 115.3 (23) NetRtg: -2.1 (20) Pace: 103.6 (2)

The Bulls have won 12 of their last 16 games and have a chance to move up into the East’s No. 7-8 Play-In game. Josh Giddey and Coby White continue to lead the way offensively, with the former recording his sixth triple-double in the Bulls’ win vs. Portland on Friday and the latter recording his ninth game of at least 30 points in their win in Charlotte over the weekend.

One takeaway

The Bulls made changes to their roster and their offense but are still a very similar team (on both ends of the floor) to the one that finished 39-43 last season before winning the 9-10 Play-In game and losing with a chance to steal the No. 8 seed from Miami. Giddey and Matas Buzelis appear to have them better set up for 3-5 years down the line, though it would be nice if the latter was more of a defensive presence with his size and length. His 1.4 deflections per 36 minutes rank 28th among 33 rookies who have played at least 500 minutes.

What to watch for this week

The Bulls should hope the winner of Tuesday’s Hawks-Magic game also wins when those two teams play again on the last day of the season. Chicago has the head-to-head tie-breaker against the seventh-place Magic (who they trail by two games), but not against the eighth-place Hawks (who they trail by one game). If they can get the No. 8 seed, they’ll likely go into the Play-In with a winning record on the road for the first time in the last 10 seasons.

The bad news is that the Cavs didn’t clinch the No. 1 seed (losing to Sacramento) on Sunday, so they’ll have something to play for in Cleveland on Tuesday night. The Cavs have scored 125.2 points per 100 possessions as they’ve won the first three meetings with the Bulls.

Week 25: @ CLE, vs. MIA, vs. WAS, @ PHI

Record: 38-41

OffRtg: 114.0 (16) DefRtg: 115.0 (18) NetRtg: -1.0 (18) Pace: 100.2 (12)

Both Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II returned from extended absences last week, but the Mavs lost three of four, blowing a double-digit, fourth-quarter lead to the Nets and getting clobbered in back-to-back games against the Clippers. So they still have some work to do to secure a Play-In spot in the West, with the 11th-place Suns (who they lead by 2 1/2 games) holding the head-to-head tie-breaker.

One takeaway

If the Mavs make the postseason, they will be Team Small-Sample Size. Their one win last week (vs. Atlanta on Wednesday) was the one game in which they’ve had Gafford, Lively and Anthony Davis all available. Davis has played just 54 total minutes alongside one of the other two, with the Mavs being outscored by 14 points in those 14 minutes. You would think that if they’re going to play big, they should dominate the offensive glass, but they’ve ranked 29th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.7%) over the two weeks since Davis made his return, with an even lower number (21.3%) in his 171 minutes on the floor.

What to watch for this week

Can they dominate inside against the team from which they acquired Davis? The Mavs will have a rest advantage when they welcome Luka Dončić back to Dallas on Wednesday. Their magic number (wins plus Suns losses) to clinch a Play-In spot is two.

Week 25: vs. LAL, vs. TOR, @ MEM

Record: 35-43

OffRtg: 111.9 (21) DefRtg: 112.1 (10) NetRtg: -0.2 (16) Pace: 96.8 (27)

After scoring 126.6 points per 100 possessions over a six-game winning streak, the Heat scored just 108.8 per 100 as they lost home games to the Grizzlies and Bucks. That has them at the bottom of the Play-In group in the East, though they’ll have an opportunity to move up this week.

One takeaway

It’s been a weird season in Miami, and the circumstances have had Tyler Herro carrying a heavy load offensively. But with the heavier load, he’s seen a big jump in efficiency, registering the highest true shooting percentage (by a wide margin) and highest assist/turnover ratio of his career. Improvement has come inside, with Herro setting career-high marks for both his field goal percentage in the paint (59.2%) and the percentage of his shots that have come in the paint (41%). The Heat have scored 8.9 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor (113.4) than when he’s off the floor (104.5).

What to watch for this week

The Heat are 13-3 against the bottom six teams in the league, with three games against that group this week. They’ll have a rest advantage for their game in Chicago on Wednesday, when home-court advantage in the No. 9-10 Play-In game could be on the line. They’re just 2-4 in rest-advantage games and 0-2 against the Bulls, with both games having been within five points in the last five minutes and with Chicago having scored 31 points on 21 clutch possessions.

Week 25: vs. PHI, @ CHI, @ NOP, vs. WAS

Record: 35-43

OffRtg: 115.1 (10) DefRtg: 117.7 (27) NetRtg: -2.6 (21) Pace: 98.3 (22)

The Suns haven’t been eliminated yet and they hold the head-to-head tie-breaker against the 10th-place Mavs, who they trail by two games in the loss column. But they’ve lost six straight and are now 2-14 (0-14 against teams that aren’t the Jazz) without Kevin Durant, who’s missed the last three games with a sprained ankle.

One takeaway

It seems the Suns could never be bothered to defend at a decent level this season, and the defense has only gotten worse. They’ve allowed more than 130 points per 100 possessions in five of the six games during this losing streak, giving them 13 such games for the season, with only the Pelicans (14) having more. Phoenix ranked 25th defensively at the All-Star break and has seen the league’s second-biggest jump in points allowed per 100 possessions since the break. They had a better-than-average defense last season but seemingly never bought into whatever coach Mike Budenholzer has been selling on that end of the floor.

What to watch for this summer

It’s very possible that Durant has played his last game for the Suns, though he still has another year left on his contract. If they trade him, the Suns certainly won’t get the kind of assets they sent to Brooklyn to acquire the 36-year-old, and as things stand, they’ll have Cleveland’s pick (likely 29th) in the first round of the Draft instead of their own (which belongs to Houston).

Week 25: vs. GSW, vs. OKC, vs. SAS, @ SAC

Record: 35-44

OffRtg: 111.3 (22) DefRtg: 114.2 (17) NetRtg: -2.9 (23) Pace: 99.5 (17)

The Blazers’ surprising run for a Play-In spot in the West has come up short, but they took a big step forward this season and a Lottery trip means that they get to keep their first-round pick (owed to the Bulls if it was outside the top 14). From mid-January to early March, they went 15-6 with the league’s second-ranked defense. It was a pretty soft stretch of schedule (only two of the 15 wins came against teams currently over .500), but it was something to build on.

One takeaway

Though his per-game numbers are down from his rookie year, Scoot Henderson has taken a step forward in his efficiency this season. The bigger story in Portland has been the continued improvement of Deni Avdija, who has gone from 12.4 points per 36 minutes on a true shooting percentage of 53.5% two seasons ago to 20.3 per 36 on 60.5% this year. The 24-year-old has even gaudier numbers since the All-Star break and is under contract for three more seasons at just $13.1 million per season.

What to watch for this summer

It will be interesting to see if the Blazers want to move on from any of their three highest-paid players: Deandre Ayton (under contract for one more year), Jerami Grant (three more) or Anfernee Simons (one more). Neither Ayton nor Grant were a big part of that 15-6 stretch and the Blazers were outscored by 16.8 points per 100 possessions in 535 total minutes with all three of those guys on the floor.

Week 25: @ UTA, vs. GSW, vs. LAL

Record: 32-46

OffRtg: 113.4 (18) DefRtg: 116.2 (25) NetRtg: -2.8 (22) Pace: 100.1 (13)

It was a tough season in San Antonio, with coach Gregg Popovich suffering a stroke in November and Victor Wembanyama’s season being cut short at the All-Star break by deep vein thrombosis. The Spurs’ playoff drought has reached six years (second-longest active drought), but they’ve been the league’s sixth most improved team regarding winning percentage and seventh most improved statistically (+3.6 points per 100 possessions). They were 21-25 in the games that Wembanyama played after going 19-52 with him in uniform last season.

One takeaway

With Wembanyama out for the last seven weeks and De’Aaron Fox also getting shut down in mid-March, the focus has been on the development of Stephon Castle. Three-point shooting (28.3%) has been an issue for the rookie all season, but he’s been attacking more since the break (15.2 drives per 36 minutes) than he did prior (10.9 per 36) and ranks 13th in free throw rate (33.4 attempts per 100 shots from the field) among 92 players 6-6 or shorter with at least 500 field goal attempts. If the perimeter shot (and finishing in the paint) improves in the next few years, Castle will be very tough to defend.

What to watch for this summer

Three of the league’s biggest summer storylines will originate from San Antonio. There’s the continued recovery of Popovich and Wembanyama, along with the future of Chris Paul (one of the best point guards in NBA history). If the Spurs stay where they are (eighth) in the upside-down standings, they’ll have a 26% chance at another top-four pick. It’s more likely that they land at No. 8 or 9 in the Draft, with the Hawks’ pick (likely No. 10-16) also coming their way.

Week 25: @ LAC, @ GSW, @ PHX, vs. TOR

Record: 29-50

OffRtg: 109.5 (26) DefRtg: 113.7 (16) NetRtg: -4.3 (24) Pace: 100.5 (9)

The Raptors have been good enough to stay clear of the bottom six in the league, now 15-3 (13-1 since Jan. 1) against that group with their win in Brooklyn on Sunday. But they’re just 14-47 (with seven straight losses) against the rest of the league, having scored just 108.3 points per 100 possessions over those 61 games. And it remains unclear if their current core can eventually take them into the top six in the Eastern Conference in the next few years.

One takeaway

Scottie Barnes remains the centerpiece. His five-year max extension kicks in on July 1 and the Raptors continue to use him in a myriad of ways. According to Second Spectrum tracking, he’s one of five players — Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and Jayson Tatum are the others — that have set at least 400 ball-screens, have had at least 400 ball-screens set for them, and have posted up at least 100 times. But those other guys rank second, sixth, 12th and 23rd in true shooting percentage among the 44 players with a usage rate of 25% or higher, while Barnes (career-low 52.1%) ranks 43rd. He’s still a few steps from being the best player on a good team and it will be fascinating to see how well he and Brandon Ingram fit together next season.

What to watch for this summer

The Raptors will have a top-10 pick, but it is most important that they come back with a healthy core to see what kind of team they have. Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett have played just 271 minutes together this season, while Ingram hasn’t suited up since being acquired at the trade deadline. Some depth up front would help, with Jakob Poeltl having had significant on-off differentials in each of the last two seasons.

Week 25: vs. CHA, @ DAL, @ SAS

Record: 25-53

OffRtg: 108.2 (28) DefRtg: 115.2 (22) NetRtg: -7.0 (26) Pace: 96.6 (29)

The Nets traded two useful veterans as early as possible, but their season wasn’t as bad as it was seemingly supposed to be. They’re sixth in the upside-down standings, having seen extended stretches of success on both ends of the floor in Jordi Fernandez’s first season on the bench. They had a top-10 offense through the first six weeks (falling off dramatically after that) and the league’s No. 1 defense over four weeks leading into the All-Star break.

One takeaway

The big thing the Nets have been lacking is an advantage-creator on offense. Despite that, Cam Johnson has registered the highest true shooting percentage of his career (63.2%), with big jumps from last season in field goal percentage in the paint and free throw rate. He’s also taken on additional playmaking duties himself, with his 5.3 assists per 100 possessions being a career-high mark by a healthy margin. Johnson (who turned 29 last month) has two more years on his contract, so there’s still no urgency to trade him, even if the Nets’ plan is a long-term one.

What to watch for this summer

In their trade with the Rockets last June, the Nets re-acquired their 2025 first-round pick and their 2026 first-round pick. So, they may wait another year before taking a major step toward competitiveness. But they also have a ton of cap space with which to go shopping, either in free agency or by using the space to trade for players under contract. And all their picks (including four first-rounders this year) could certainly allow them to chase big names whenever the opportunity presents itself.

Week 25: vs. NOP, vs. ATL, @ MIN, vs. NYK

Record: 21-57

OffRtg: 110.0 (25) DefRtg: 118.7 (29) NetRtg: -8.7 (28) Pace: 99.6 (15)

The Pelicans have beaten a couple of the other teams in the bottom six in the last couple of weeks, but will likely have the fourth best odds in the Lottery, and this is a team that has done well with its Draft picks over the last few years. Of course, one of those was Dyson Daniels, who the Pelicans sent to Atlanta (along with two first round picks) for Dejounte Murray.

One takeaway

The Pelicans have been 13.3 points per 100 possessions worse this season (minus-8.7) than they were last season (plus-4.6), with that being the third biggest season-to-season drop-off for any team in the last 25 years. Their struggles go beyond their myriad of injuries, as they were outscored by 1.3 points per 100 possessions in 667 minutes with any three of CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson in the game. Even when they had some of their best players on the floor, they weren’t very good.

What to watch for this summer

The Pelicans’ chances of getting a top-five pick will likely be better than 50%. More interesting, of course, is the future of Williamson, who will have played in just 215 (45%) of a possible 487 games (including Play-In and playoffs) over his six-year career. He was better offensively over his last 15 games (25.9 points, 5.7 assists, true shooting percentage of 64.2%) than he was over his first 15 (23.3, 4.9, 55.9%), but 30 games total just isn’t enough. The Pels could also use some help in the backcourt, with Dejounte Murray (torn Achilles) likely to be on the shelf through (at least) the first few months of next season.

Week 25: @ BKN, @ MIL, vs. MIA, vs. OKC

Record: 19-59

OffRtg: 107.2 (29) DefRtg: 115.5 (24) NetRtg: -8.3 (27) Pace: 98.3 (23)

The Hornets have now missed the playoffs in nine straight seasons, the league’s longest active drought and the longest drought in Eastern Conference history. If they don’t win another game, this will be the franchise’s third-worst season since the Bobcats were born in 2004. But statistically, the Hornets have been better than they were last season (minus 10.6 per 100 possessions), with the improvement coming entirely on defense.

One takeaway

A foundation is being built. In coach Charles Lee’s first season in Charlotte, the Hornets have been the league’s sixth most improved defensive team, allowing 3.7 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did in 2023-24. They ranked 13th defensively (and were third most improved on that end) at the All-Star break. In his two seasons so far, Brandon Miller has played in just 39 games (827 total minutes) alongside LaMelo Ball. If you’re not going to win, it would be nice if your two top-three picks could get more time together than that.

What to watch for this summer

The Hornets are still a ways from winning a playoff series for the first time since the old Hornets did it in 2002. It’s not set yet, but the Hornets will likely be one of the three teams with a 14% chance of winning the top pick in the Lottery. They won’t have any major free agency decisions to make regarding their current roster, but they could use more playmaking in the backcourt. We’re also still waiting for vice president Jeff Peterson (hired 13 months ago) to make an imprint on the roster.

Week 25: vs. MEM, @ TOR, @ BOS, @ BOS

Record: 17-61

OffRtg: 106.0 (30) DefRtg: 118.2 (28) NetRtg: -12.1 (30) Pace: 101.9 (4)

The Wizards have won more games than they did last season (15-67), but have been 3.4 points per 100 possessions worse, with only five teams having taken a bigger step backward statistically. As things stand, they have the third-worst per-game point differential in NBA history, with their 24 losses of 20 points or more tied for the second most all-time. (The record is 26.)

One takeaway

The Wizards have gotten 34% of their minutes from rookies, the league’s highest rate by a wide margin (Toronto is next at 24%). They even added a fourth 2024 first-round pick (AJ Johnson) to the three they already had at the traded deadline. The big project is seven-footer Alex Sarr, who’s averaged 16.2 points (on a true shooting percentage of 49.5%) since the All-Star break, up from 11.4 (on 47.9%) before the break, also seeing some improvement in his rim protection numbers.

What to watch for this summer

Second-year wing Bilal Coulibaly took a small step backward this season, but is still just 20 years old. The Wizards will likely add two more first-round picks — theirs (no worse than No. 6) and that of the Grizzlies (if Memphis makes the playoffs) — to their young core. This is a long-term rebuild, but Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart could be kept around for some veteran stability. They’re the reason why the Wizards haven’t been so bad (20th) defensively since the All-Star break.

Week 25: @ IND, vs. PHI, @ CHI, @ MIA

Record: 23-55

OffRtg: 111.2 (23) DefRtg: 117.5 (26) NetRtg: -6.3 (25) Pace: 97.9 (25)

The Sixers are the clear No. 1 team in the “This season was a disaster” rankings. Joel Embiid hobbled through 19 games, while Paul George played in only 41 and (when he did play) wasn’t the guy they thought they were getting when they signed him last summer. He registered his lowest usage rate in the last 12 years and saw a big dip in efficiency. Those two guys are owed more than $410 million over the next four years.

One takeaway

There are no “lost” seasons in the NBA, and the Sixers will come out of this with a couple of important realizations. First, rookie Jared McCain (though he was available for only 23 games and missed out on some critical development time) is a player. Second, Quentin Grimes is more than just a 3-and-D guy. Less than half (49.7%) of his buckets have been unassisted as he’s averaged an efficient 22.3 points in his 25 games with Philly. If the Sixers have those two, along with Tyrese Maxey, George and a healthy Embiid (it’s a big if), they could have a pretty potent offense next season.

What to watch for this summer

If the Sixers end the season with the league’s fifth-worst record, they will have a 64% chance of keeping their pick, which is protected 1-6. A top-six pick and McCain allows them to start building a second timeline. Grimes (who will turn 25 next month) is a restricted free agent and will need to be signed, and there will be more work to do in regard to the rest of the rotation.

Week 25: @ MIA, @ WAS, vs. ATL, vs. CHI

Record: 16-63

OffRtg: 110.3 (24) DefRtg: 119.4 (30) NetRtg: -9.1 (29) Pace: 100.7 (7)

This will be the fourth straight season in which the Jazz have taken a step backward, both regarding record and point differential per 100 possessions. They put their offense in the hands of a pair of young guards and played just 260 total minutes (over 19 games) with their four most competent vets on the floor together. The result was the worst turnover differential (by a wide margin) in the 48 seasons that turnovers have been counted.

One takeaway

What this season produces regarding the Draft is TBD. For now, there’s the question of if the Jazz have a quality starter among the six guys they’ve selected in the last two drafts. The most promising of the six is probably Taylor Hendricks, who suffered a brutal leg injury in the season’s third game. Cody Williams, last year’s No. 10 pick, has had a rough rookie year and ranked last in effective field goal percentage (39.1%) among 297 players with at least 250 field goal attempts. The Jazz also were outscored by 15.5 points per 100 possessions in his 1,060 minutes on the floor.

What to watch for this summer

So the Jazz really need to strike gold with their pick (which will be no lower than sixth) this year. They don’t have any real free agents, but John Collins has a $27-million player option and Lauri Markkanen will be trade-eligible for the first time since he signed his contract extension last summer. It will be difficult for the Jazz to take another step backward next season, but don’t put it past them.

Week 25: vs. POR, vs. OKC, @ MIN